Randy Wolf May Have More Value for the 'Stros than People Think

Yesterday, the Padres traded Randy Wolf to the Astros. The reviews are in, and while few analysts are overly excited about Chad Reineke, the 26 year old AAA pitcher the Padres received, the general consensus is that the move made no sense for the Astros. Prior to the trade being completed, Rob Neyer (subscription required) of ESPN wrote: "If the Astros trade even one promising young player for Randy Wolf, it'll rank among the worst deals of the year." Today, he replied: “Well, they've done it. And it may wind up looking like one of the worst deals of the year.”

I too was initially shocked that the Astros wanted to acquire Randy Wolf, and deemed it another bone-headed move by Astros GM Ed Wade. Like the Padres, the Astros are in last place in their division. They trail the Cubs by 12 games, and recently placed Roy Oswalt-their best pitcher-on the DL. Additionally, Randy Wolf is not very good. Besides the fact that he has historically had trouble staying healthy, he currently has a SNLVAR of 2.2, meaning he has essentially been a replacement level pitcher this season. The only reason his ERA does not look worse, is he has been fortunate enough to pitch half his games at Petco Park. For the privilege of acquiring a player who fall somewhere between replacement level and average level (probably closer to replacement level), the Astros surrendered one of their top 5 pitching prospects.

As bad as the trade is for the Astros, I can at least understand it. First, Reineke is nowhere close to a top prospect. He is neither particularly young, nor particularly good. From what I have read, most scouts project him as a long-reliever with the upside to be a serviceable middle reliever. That type of player has some value, but is nothing to get too worked up about losing. Next, Randy Wolf actually improves the Astros rotation this season. With Oswalt injured, Wolf is probably the best starter on their team. Even though they will not contend for a playoff spot, as MB over at Friar Forecast notes: “it’s not like regular season games are meaningless, if you aren’t in contention. A win (or some fraction of a win) is still worth something, in revenue, to a ball club.” I have no idea what the Astros specific win curve (the amount of revenue they receive for each marginal win) looks like, but it is conceivable that acquiring Wolf is close to a break-even proposition for Houston this season.

Finally, trading for Wolf presents the Astros with the opportunity to exclusively negotiate a contract with him for a few weeks after the season. If they are able to resign Wolf, the deal suddenly makes a lot of sense. Even if they do not resign Wolf, there is the chance that they could receive a compensatory draft pick for losing him to free agency. When all factors are considered, the Astros suddenly do not look too dumb. At the same time, they took on more payroll and further depleted their farm system in a year without much hope at contending. From the Padres perspective-the trade makes complete sense. They acquire another cheap arm they can control for the next half-decade, and no longer need to pay a mediocre pitcher a decent salary.