Are the Padres Tanking Games?

Stephen Strasburg, is, at this time, widely recognized as the most promising talent eligible for the 2009 MLB draft. He is a SP who combines a fastball that reaches the mid to upper 90s with quality secondary pitches. He is seen as being close to major league ready, perhaps ready to assume a rotation spot within 2 years of being drafted. While there are certainly other intriguing prospects, the number one prize in the '09 draft is clearly Strasburg.

With the Padres well out of contention, it would seemingly behoove them to finish with the worst overall record, allowing the team to draft Strasburg. Recent moves such as starting Will Venable in CF, Matt Antonelli at 2B, and employing a 6 man rotation do not seem to have been made with the goal of winning ballgames.

With that said, many of those moves may have other explanations. Jody Gerut is probably not the long-term answer in CF. Venable may be. Giving him a chance to experience life in the big leagues, and face major league pitching could help him progress as a player. Same with Antonelli, who although he had a miserable overall batting line in AAA, has been hitting better of late, and could very well be the Padres opening day second baseman in '09.

The six-man rotation is a little trickier to explain. The Padres have had trouble fielding 5 good starters, let alone 6. Adding Wade LeBlanc and Josh Geer to the rotation makes some sense, with the logic being similar to that of playing Venable and Antonelli every day. On the other hand, adding Sean Estes to the rotation makes little sense. Estes had his last reasonably solid year in 2001 with the Giants. Since then, his performance, when healthy has been miserable. Of course, he has rarely been healthy. Estes has pitched 30 innings since 2005-not exactly a guy a team can count on to be healthy in the future. It is unlikely Estes will provide much value to the Padres in '09, so the only reason I can think of for him to be pitching every 6 days is to give Peavy extra rest.

Jake Peavy pitching every 6 days, rather than every 5 days does two things: it helps avoid unnecesarily overtaxing Peavy, and it also transfers some innings Peavy would have otherwise pitched to a (probably worse than) replacement level pitcher. One explanation implies the Padres are tanking games, the other merely suggests the Padres are being cautious with one of their most valuable assets.

Personally, I don't think the Padres would risk the hit to their reputation that would result from overtly tanking games. Rather, I believe the Padres primary motive is introducing some of their prospects to the majors in a relatively stress-free atmosphere, and protecting Peavy's arm. The fact that losing more games may actually benefit the team is just an added bonus which has allowed the Padres to be more aggressive in making September lineup and rotation adjustments at little cost.

I liken the situation to playing poker without money on the line. Going all-in on every hand, or otherwise disrespecting the game, is no fun for anybody involved. This type of behavior will draw the ire of others at the table. At the same time, with little to lose, it is likely everybody will play more aggressively, and even try out a new strategy or two (or in the Padres case-3 or 4).