Trade will be Judged on Greene's Ability to Bounce Back

Initial reports state the Padres will receive relief pitcher Mark Worrell, as well as a "player to be named later" from the Cardinals in return for Khalil Greene.

Supposedly Worrell is a submariner who can get his fastball up into the low-90s and has an average slider. He followed up a nice 2007 season with an even better 2008 minor league season, striking out 80 batters, compared to 30 walks in 58.2 innings. His ERA of 2.15 reflected his ability to miss bats, and prevent the long-ball (only 2 HR allowed). These numbers are even more impressive in the context of his league (the PCL).

Baseball Prospectus's translated minor league statistics suggest Worrell would have put up a 3.65 DERA in the major leagues. Worrell should earn a spot in the Padre's 2009 bullpen, and based on his minor league profile, looks to be a decent bet to have a pretty good season. At 25 years old, and with minimal big league experience Worrell will be under team control through his prime years.

While I am pleased about adding Worrell, and am optimistic he will be another K.T. "bullpen gem," the fact Worrell is a reliever puts a damper on his value. Not only do relievers not pitch many innings, but their performance is notoriously volatile across seasons. Likewise, there is some risk that Worrell's odd delivery will not fool big league hitters like it did minor leaguers.

We can analyze the Padre's return all we want, but the bottom line is this trade will not be evaluated in the context of who the Padres received, but rather whether Khalil Greene is able to bounce back from a disastrous 2008 season, and put up reasonable numbers while playing a decent shortstop. Greeney has never been good at getting on base, but if he can somehow replicate, or even approach his 2005-2007 line (once park effects are adjusted for), the Cardinals are likely to come out on top in this deal.

Personally, and this is pure speculation, I see Greene rebounding and having solid seasons going forward. He will probably never be an allstar, but capable every day shortstops are not easy to find cheaply (they are certainly more difficult than finding cheap, capable relievers). It might have been in the Padres best long-term interests to try and sign Khalil to a steeply discounted multi-year deal now rather than trading him away. Of course, the Padres know more about Greene than I do, and we should probably give them the benefit of the doubt on this one. If they planned on letting Greene walk after the season, because the Padres are unlikely to contend in 2009, it makes sense to get as much as possible for him now. Likewise, Greene might have had no interest in signing a dirt cheap contract extension following his worst season as a pro.

Assuming the Padres made this trade for baseball reasons, rather than as a reaction to a short-term cash flow problem, I have no problem with it since I trust the team's ability to evaluate players. But my feelings are reversed if management had reason to believe Greene's 2008 performance was bit of an outlier, and would have otherwise liked to hold onto him, possibly signing him to a contract extension. Since there is no way to know what the Padres true motives for dealing Greene were, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. Hopefully things work out in the Friar's favor.