Geoff, at Ducksnorts seems to take issue with my statement that "I doubt that the Padres consistently predicted 90 wins." He suggests that the answer to whether the Padres explicitly mislead the fans regarding the season outlook lies in how one "perceive[s] the front office." Geoff writes:
If you are inclined to mistrust them, then you will conclude that they were lying because this is consistent with your beliefs. It’s easy to find (or concoct) justifications for a particular point of view. What’s difficult is taking an honest look at a situation, with all its incumbent variables, and trying to figure out what’s actually happening.
I disagree. The answer is not necessarily a function of perception. In previous posts, I have vehemently defended the front office, going so far as to write: "The Padres may be terrible this year, but there is no other group of people I would rather have trying to fix the problem going forward." I have supported the controversial goal of being "consistently competitive," have urged others to resist placing the blame on management, and have written glowingly of the decisions made in keeping or trading personnel and protecting our prospects.
With that said, it is not inconceivable that the Padres, who clearly have an interest in maintaining high expectations, would release the most optimistic results of their preseason projections. Prior to the season, PECOTA predicted 79 wins. An average of the opinions of 17 Baseball Prospectus writers felt the Padres would finish 4th in the NL West, ahead of only the Giants. Other quantitative systems predicted the Padres were a low to mid 80 win team. In fact, the only 2 projections I saw that forecasted close to a 90 win season belonged to The Hardball Times and the San Diego Padres (who obviously did not disclose their methodology).
Clearly there is no definitive proof that the Padres had internal models that were not as optimistic as their public prediction of 90 wins. I am choosing to believe that in the excitement of the off-season, the Padres released their most optimistic projections, and in the process may have mislead the fans. My belief is not biased from a lack of faith in the Padres. Rather, bias may exist because I have too much faith in the Padres and their ability to get things right.
Regardless of whether you believe that in this specific situation the Padres purposely mislead the fans, the underlying question remains: when is okay for the front office to lie?
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You're correct that it is not *necessarily* a function of perception -- I probably should have said "likely to conclude." You also are not representative of many fans I talk to, who don't always think or care about such things. Too bad for them; I find this stuff fascinating. Thanks for providing such excellent fodder for discussion.
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