Giles to Boston?

Today’s big news in Padresland is the Red Sox are “working on a deal to acquire Brian Giles.” Supposedly, the Red Sox claimed Giles on waivers. The Padres have 48 hours to work out a deal with the Sox. Giles, who has a limited no-trade clause, can block a deal to the Red Sox if he so desires. In the event no deal is reached, the Padres will likely pull Giles off waivers and retain him for at least the end of the season. Below, I will try to answer a few of the obvious questions surrounding this report:

Why Does Boston want to acquire Brian Giles?

As the ESPN report indicated, the health of David Ortiz (and Mike Lowell) is uncertain. Ortiz has already spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list this season, and is currently battling a troubled wrist. Acquiring Giles would act as an insurance policy, protecting the Red Sox against Ortiz missing time both in the regular season, and more importantly-the playoffs. Giles is very adept at getting on base, and could be a good fit in the 2-hole, ahead of Boston’s power hitters. Giles is also affordably signed through the 2009 season. The Mark Teixera trades give us a reasonable estimate as to the value of an extra year of control. Teams are no longer willing to give up the farm for an expiring contract, but will pay a premium for a player controllable for at least an additional year.

In all honesty, I am not convinced Boston is interested in actually acquiring Giles. Boston already has Jason Bay and J.D. Drew at the corners of the OF, and assuming David Ortiz is healthy for the playoffs, there is no spot for Giles to play in Boston. My feeling is Boston submitted a claim to prevent Tampa Bay or Anaheim from getting a shot at Giles. It would seem that Giles would provide more marginal benefit to either Tampa or Anaheim. Boston has no interest in seeing either of those teams upgrade heading toward/into the playoffs.

What can the Padres get in Return for Giles?

While I would not expect the Padres to receive anything close to what the Pirates got for Jason Bay, if a deal is consummated, the Padres should get one (or more) reasonably solid prospects. Boston has a very deep farm system, and could probably tempt the Padres without giving up one of their top five farm-hands. As I wrote last week, Giles is a very valuable asset for the Padres through 2009. The Padres will not deal him unless they get equally valuable assets in return.

Should the Padres have Dealt Giles Prior to the Deadline?

Not necessarily. It is true that now the deadline has passed, the Padres do not have the same amount of leverage they possessed prior to the deadline. The only team they can trade Giles to now is Boston, and under normal circumstances, this would seemingly lessen their potential return. However, because Giles is a valuable asset going forward, and the Padres are content holding on to him, Boston will still be forced to pay up if they want Giles. Even though the Padres insist they did not actively shop Giles prior to the trade-deadline, I find it difficult to believe they hung up the phone before listening to the offers of interested teams. It is likely that the Padres considered the offers, and found none of them to be enticing enough to deal Giles. Perhaps with further question marks now surrounding the health of David Ortiz, the Red Sox are valuing Giles differently than they did a few days ago. If Giles’ value to Boston has increased, then the Padres are likely to get more out of Boston now than they could have at the deadline.

Will Giles Accept a Trade to Boston?

He may. Or he may not. Giles may be interested in having a legitimate shot at winning the World Series, or he may prefer playing for his hometown Padres. It is impossible to know what his preferences are. One possibility is that Giles agrees to a trade under the condition that his option be dropped. He would then be a free agent at the end of the season and free to sign with any team-including the Padres. Of course, dropping the option would reduce his value to Boston, and thus reduce the caliber of prospect(s) the Padres are able to acquire in return.