The Padres have a lot of mediocre players who are better suited to bench work or long relief, than a spot in the starting lineup or the five-man rotation. Many of these players, such as Jody Gerut and Cha Seung Baek are not young and do not figure to be a major part of the Padres plans in the future.
One reader of this blog has been telling me since mid-June that he, as a fan, would rather see some of the team’s young prospects get a chance to play every day for the big league club. He argues that since the team is going nowhere this season, that it would be more exciting for fans to catch a glimpse of the future than to watch “4A” talent. In addition, he believes that the young players will benefit from some time in the majors, and are likely to become better players due to the experience. He frequently cites Will Inman and Steve Garrison as candidates to be promoted and plugged into the big league rotation. Even though he is certain that Gerut and others must be replaced, I have yet to hear this loyal reader present any suggestions for position players due for a promotion
I recognize three primary problems associated with promoting Inman or Garrison at this point in the season. The first is that they are not better pitchers, at this point in their careers, than anybody in the current Padres rotation. The second problem is that rushing players who are not ready for the majors may stunt their development. Finally, a player promoted from the minors begins accumulating MLB service time.
By promoting Inman or Garrison to their big league team, the Padres are likely to become worse, rather than better. Davenport Translations can give us a rough estimate for the stats minor league players are likely to put up in the majors. Both are likely to post Defense Independent ERAs in the mid-5s. For comparison, the much maligned Cha Seung Baek has a DERA of 4.88 this season, while Josh Banks has posted a 3.97 DERA for the Padres. Other statistics can, and should be compared in a more thorough analysis, but I believe it is pretty clear that Inman and Garrison are downgrades, this season, from Banks, Baek, or just about any other pitcher the Padres may decide to plug into the 5 slot in the rotation. Although some fans may get excited about being introduced to some of the franchise’s younger talent, I believe many fans will actually be turned off by the even poorer performance of the team that is likely to ensue. These fans will question why the team is making them pay major league dollar to cheer for minor league talent.
A somewhat more compelling reason for promoting the “kids,” (not sure kid is the right word for me to use, since these guys are slightly older than myself), is to help accelerate the development process of these young players. Some may point to Chase Headley’s experience as a Padre last season as “proof” of the good a short stint in the majors can do for a player’s development. Chase was called up from AA last year to fill in for an injured Kevin Kouzmanoff. Headley struggled in a small sample of plate appearances, and was optioned back to the minors upon Kouz’s return. Following his return to AA, Headley performed exceptionally. The theory is that although Headley was not great in the big leagues, that he learned from the experience and was ready to positively contribute the next season.
Unfortunately, there is no evidence that Headley’s appearance in the major’s actually helped him become a better or more major league ready player. Prior to his call up, Headley was hitting 0.357 in the minors, so it’s not like he learned how to hit due to a few games in the majors. In fact, I would argue that promoting a player before he is ready has the potential to do more harm than good. It is possible that a player not yet ready for the big leagues may try so hard to impress that he could mess up his mechanics (potentially leading to injury). Also, although it is difficult to quantify the effect confidence has on production, a young player who struggles mightily in the big leagues, could have trouble regaining his previous form due to confidence issues. I am not certain rushing a player actually does him permanent harm, but I find the potential harm to be more probable, and greater in magnitude than the potential benefits.
The final, and most important reason for not rushing a top prospect to the majors, is the “service time” issue. A player becomes eligible for arbitration if he has 3 or more years of MLB service time. After 6 years of MLB service time, a player can file for free agency. This system makes a player’s 1-3 years incredibly valuable to teams, since they can pay the players a salary potentially well below their marginal revenue product. To call a player up before he is ready, and particularly in a year where the team is terrible, wastes those valuable years, and will cause the players to become arbitration and free agent eligible sooner than necessary.
I am not opposed to calling up a few minor leaguers once rosters expand in September. A few days in the majors, after a full season of development in the minors, is likely to do little harm (assuming pitchers' IP are carefully monitored). What I do not wish to see is players rushed to the majors in early August for no reason other than change itself. To waste valuable development time in the minor leagues, to risk blows to the players’ confidence, and to start the service time clock for no apparent reason just makes no sense.
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3 comments:
Great article Daniel
I said to bring up Hundley this whole year so if you are going to refer to me please include the facts. Thank you sir.
Please elaborate as to why not mentioning Hundley short-changes you. Sure Hundley has a better arm than Bard, but look at his bat-it has not been good. Many scouts (and stats people) do not feel Hundley will ever be a quality every-day catcher. He is probably more of a reserve than a starter.
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